Look Beneath the Headlines.
Data can be your best friend — if you know what to look for. Phoebe finds the trend beneath the headline and turns it into something you can use.
The read · narrated
Headline inflation hit 4.2% — the hottest in three years — but the real story is the gap: core is running 2.9%, the headline-core split is the widest since October 2022, and three months into the gas spike it still hasn't seeped into the rest of the basket. The Fed watches core; the bond market is keeping a hike on the table.
Prices at the wholesale level — the inflation pipeline before it reaches your receipt. The read lands here when it drops.
Also Thursday: jobless claims, 8:30 AM ET.
One plain-English video read per release, the morning it lands. No noise, no calls.
Each link is a release Phoebe reads; the Weekly Read puts it all together.
| Series | Latest | Trend | Next |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI) | +4.2% y/yJun 10 | ▲ hottest since April 2023 — third straight acceleration | Jul 14 |
| Inflation, the Fed's gauge (PCE) | +3.8% y/yMay 28 | ▲ core at 3.3% — drifted up this spring; target is 2% | Jun 25 |
| Jobs added (payrolls) | +172K MayJun 5 | ▲ a beat — but the whole gain was three sectors | Jul 2 |
| Jobless claims | 225K wkJun 4 | ▲ a 10-week high — still below a year ago | Thu |
| Job openings & turnover | 7.6M openJun 2 | ▼ hires near a one-year low; quits at the floor | Jun 30 |
| Growth (GDP) | +1.6% Q1May 28 | annualized; up from Q4's +0.5% | Jun 25 |
| Consumer spending (retail) | +4.9% y/yMay 14 | real gain +1.0% — most of it is inflation | Jun 17 |
| Fed funds target | 3.50–3.75%set Dec 2025 | steady since December 2025 | Jun 17 |
| 10-yr Treasury | 4.53%Jun 9 | ▼ −3 bps yesterday · the rate behind mortgages | daily |
| 30-yr mortgage | 6.48%Jun 4 | ▼ −0.37 over the past year | weekly |
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, Department of Labor, the Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac, and the U.S. Treasury — directly or via FRED.
A living chart of what the bond market expects — the 2-year and 10-year against the Fed's policy rate, with the releases that moved them marked along the way. The reference behind the reads, explained from the ground up.
Open the Yields page →What it costs to borrow today — mortgage, auto, prime, credit card — and where each rate sits against its own history. Why a Fed cut doesn't always reach your mortgage, explained from the ground up.
Open the Cost of Borrowing page →